Instrument theme
Service

Predictive Analytics.

Reduce wasted ad spend. Our models forecast campaign performance with confidence intervals and shift budget toward stronger channels — inside spend caps, floors and guardrails you set, or in advisory mode only.

PERFORMANCE CAPABILITIES
01

Automated Budget Allocation

Connect Google Ads, Meta, and LinkedIn APIs. The system algorithmically calculates Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) and shifts daily budgets to outperforming creatives.
02

LTV Forecasting

Stop optimising for cheap clicks. Our models estimate the Lifetime Value (LTV) of newly acquired users early, with a confidence band, so you can bid for quality rather than cheap clicks.
03

A/B Test Orchestration

Agents generate multi-variate ad copy, deploy it, test for statistical significance, pause the losers and scale the winners — within the spend guardrails you configure.
04

Cross-Channel Attribution

Untangle the attribution problem. Markov Chain modelling estimates the incremental contribution of each touchpoint to the final conversion — an estimate, not a certainty.
PREDICTIVE MODELING ARCHITECTURE

How forecasting models estimate campaign ROI and reallocate ad spend

Most marketing teams operate on rearview-mirror analytics — they know what happened last month, but they're essentially guessing about tomorrow. Predictive marketing analytics inverts that paradigm entirely. We build statistical and machine-learning models that ingest your historical ad spend, conversion events and customer lifecycle signals to estimate CPA, LTV and campaign ROI before you commit budget to a new campaign. These are forecasts with error bars, not certainties — and reporting the error bar is the point.

The predictive modeling pipeline begins with data unification. Our systems connect to Google Ads, Meta Ads, LinkedIn Campaign Manager, TikTok Ads, and your CRM through native API integrations, aggregating every impression, click, conversion, and downstream revenue event into a unified data warehouse. From this foundation, we train models on your specific business context rather than generic industry benchmarks; the right model class depends on your data volume, and at typical account sizes that is usually gradient-boosted trees rather than a deep network. The CPA model analyses many feature dimensions: creative type, audience segment, day-of-week patterns, seasonal trends, competitive auction density, and landing page performance to generate probabilistic forecasts for every campaign configuration you're considering.

LTV modeling is where the strategic advantage compounds. Traditional marketers optimise for cost-per-lead or cost-per-acquisition, but these metrics are fundamentally incomplete — a cheap lead that never converts costs far more than a premium acquisition that generates five years of revenue. Our LTV models analyse cohort behaviour patterns, purchase frequency distributions and churn probability curves to estimate the lifetime value of each customer segment early in its life. This enables you to bid aggressively on high-value audiences that your competitors undervalue because they're only measuring surface-level conversion metrics.

The real-time budget optimisation engine operates continuously. As campaign data flows in, the system recalculates predicted ROI across every active channel and audience segment, autonomously shifting budget allocation toward combinations that maximise marginal return. Underperforming creatives are paused before they waste significant spend. Emerging high-performers are scaled instantly. It does not wait for weekly reports or monthly reviews: it makes many small adjustments a day, inside your caps and floors, compounding modest efficiency gains at a cadence a person cannot sustain by hand.

HOW IT DEPLOYS
PHASE 01

Unify the data

Native API connectors pull every impression, click and revenue event from your ad platforms and CRM into a single warehouse.

PHASE 02

Train & validate

CPA and LTV models are trained on your business context, validated against holdout sets and shipped with confidence intervals.

PHASE 03

Optimise continuously

The engine recalculates predicted ROI around the clock, shifting budget, pausing losers and scaling winners within your guardrails.

DESIGN TARGETS
1
HOLDOUT SET PER MODEL
15min
REBALANCING INTERVAL
100%
FORECASTS SHOWN WITH CONFIDENCE BANDS
1000+
MICRO-ADJUSTMENTS DAILY

Properties we design and build to, not measured client outcomes.

QUESTIONS
QUESTIONS — 6

Forecast error is reported per model with confidence intervals, on your own data, and we agree an acceptance threshold with you before go-live — a single headline accuracy percentage would be meaningless here, because 'accuracy' is not even well defined for a continuous forecast like CPA or LTV. What we commit to is method: every model is validated against a holdout set, every forecast ships with its confidence band, and error is tracked against actuals after launch so you can see when a model degrades.

At minimum, we need 6-12 months of historical ad spend data with associated conversion events. The more data dimensions available — CRM revenue data, customer cohort information, multi-touch attribution paths — the more powerful the predictive models become. We connect via native API integrations to Google Ads, Meta, LinkedIn, TikTok, and major CRM platforms, so data ingestion is automated.

The system integrates directly through each platform's API — reading performance data in real-time and writing budget adjustments, bid modifications, and creative pausing commands back to the platforms. It works alongside existing campaign structures, not replacing them. You maintain full control and visibility while the AI handles the continuous optimisation layer that human media buyers cannot sustain at machine speed.

Yes. The budget optimisation engine recalculates allocation recommendations every 15-60 minutes based on incoming performance data. It can autonomously shift spend between campaigns, ad sets, and channels — or operate in advisory mode where it surfaces recommendations for your team to approve. The system respects configurable guardrails: minimum spend floors, maximum daily shifts, and channel allocation constraints you define.

Cross-channel attribution determines which combination of marketing touchpoints actually caused a conversion, rather than crediting only the last click. Our Markov Chain models simulate removing each touchpoint from real conversion paths to measure its true incremental contribution — so budget flows to the channels that genuinely drive revenue, not the ones that merely capture credit.

It works, with adjusted expectations. Smaller accounts generate fewer conversion events, so models take longer to stabilise and carry wider confidence intervals at first. The honest test is arithmetic rather than a threshold we can quote: model the saving you would need to cover the build against your current wasted spend, and if it does not clear comfortably the answer is to wait until volume supports it. We will run that calculation with you before you commit.

Keep reading
30-minute technical call · no deck

Outsmart the
competition.

Replace manual media buying with forecasts that carry error bars and guardrails you control.

CASE STUDIES

Shipped work.
Go and check it.

The work we can name, with the live site, our scope and the boundary made explicit. Select a project to see the evidence; each is a full case study, not a logo or a claim.

sonora.com
The Sonora homepage on desktop: a full-bleed dune landscape behind the headline “Transform Your Life with Sound”, with App Store and Google Play download buttons.
sonora.com — homepage, 1440×900 sonora.com →
Live Consumer wellness · Mobile + web

Sonora

Cognitive AI Ltd · 2026

A free sound-wellness app, described by its publisher as AI sound therapy that reads a short vocal sample at the start of a session and generates a soundscape for that moment. We designed and built the website and its backend, produced assets for the iOS and Android apps, and supported the application prototype.

Read the case study →

See every published project →

WHO WE HAVE BUILT FOR

Twenty-one years of applications, platforms and campaigns for names you know.

See all of our work →